Housing Bubble

California home prices rise while sales fall

April 25, 2003

LOS ANGELES, /PRNewswire/ -- The median price of an existing home in California in March increased 15.3 percent and sales decreased 3.2 percent compared to the same period a year ago, the California Association of REALTORS(R) (C.A.R.) reported today.

"The median price of a home in California has posted double-digit gains every month for the last 16 months and hit a new record of $352,780 in March," said C.A.R. President Toby Bradley. "While consumers remain concerned about the general direction of the economy, buying a home continues to be a safe haven for California families."

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 567,610 in March at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR(R) associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity decreased 3.2 percent from the 586,230 sales pace recorded in March 2002.

"Year-to-date sales have declined 3.5 percent compared to last year's record sales pace, in line with our expectations," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young.

The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2003 would be if sales maintained the March pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during March 2003 was $352,780, a 15.3 percent increase over the revised $305,840 median for March 2002, C.A.R. reported. The March 2003 median price increased 7.8 percent compared to February 2003's revised $327,120 median price.

Highlights of C.A.R.'s resale housing figures for March 2003:

• C.A.R.'s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in March 2003 was 2.8 months, compared to 2.1 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
• Thirty-year fixed mortgage interest rates averaged 5.75 percent during March 2003, down from 7.07 percent in March 2002, according to the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. Adjustable mortgage interest rates averaged 3.76 percent in March 2003 compared to 5.09 percent in March 2002.
• The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 28 days in March 2003, unchanged from a revised 28 days for the same period a year ago.

Regional MLS sales and price information is contained in the tables that accompany this press release. Regional sales data is not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. The MLS median price and sales data for detached homes is generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS(R) throughout the state. MLS median price and sales data for condominiums is based on a survey of more than 60 associations. The median price for both detached homes and condominiums represents closed escrow sales.

In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 92 percent or 370 of 402 California cities and communities showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago. DataQuick statistics are based on county records data rather than MLS information. DataQuick Information Systems is a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates.

Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand. The DataQuick tables listing median home prices in California cities and counties are accessible through C.A.R. Online at localized data collected by C.A.R. and DataQuick.

Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the highest median home prices in California during March 2003 were:

• Pacific Palisades, $1,187,500; Manhattan Beach, $937,500; Burlingame, $881,000; Malibu $865,000; Beverly Hills, $857,500; Orinda, $820,000; Coronado, $795,000; Laguna Beach, $795,000; Carmel, $742,500; Lafayette, $740,500.

Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the greatest median home price increases in March 2003 compared to the same period a year ago were:

• Yucaipa, 59.1 percent; Arroyo Grande, 54.7 percent; Lompoc, 46.7 percent; Upland, 41.6 percent; Benicia, 40.6 percent; Montclair, 38.6 percent; Patterson, 37.8 percent; El Monte, 36.5 percent; Castaic, 36.0 percent; Big Bear Lake, 35.7 percent

              MARCH 2003 REGIONAL SALES AND PRICE ACTIVITY*
          Regional and Condo Sales Data Not Seasonally Adjusted

                                            Percent     Percent
                                           Change in    Change      Percent
                                Percent      Price     in Sales   Change in
                               Change in     from        from    Sales from
                    Median    Price from     Prior       Prior       Prior
   March-03         Price    Prior Month     Year        Month       Year
                    Mar-03      Feb-03      Mar-02       Feb-03     Mar-02

  Statewide
  Calif. (sf)      $352,780         7.8%       15.3%       0.1%      -3.2%
  Calif. (condo)   $265,440         0.9%       12.7%      38.7%      -9.4%

  Region
  Central Valley   $208,430         1.6%       20.4%      21.9%      -7.6%
  High Desert      $142,710         0.7%       21.0%      16.0%       2.0%
  Los Angeles      $309,380         0.8%       15.9%      39.0%       1.3%
  Monterey
   Region          $457,140        -2.5%        5.5%      49.8%      -7.0%
  Monterey County  $405,000         5.7%       10.5%      81.5%      -5.6%
  Santa Cruz
   County          $522,500        -0.5%        5.1%      24.6%     -10.5%
  Northern
   California      $263,500         7.0%       19.2%      36.4%      -3.0%
  Northern Wine
   Country         $393,690         1.1%        9.9%      34.0%     -16.7%
  Orange County    $449,100        -0.1%       18.3%      53.9%      -5.4%
  Palm Springs/
   Lower Desert    $271,350        10.5%       23.8%      31.1%      10.8%
  Riverside/
   San Bernardino  $197,690         0.9%       15.8%      24.3%       0.7%
  Sacramento       $234,250         2.2%       25.1%      15.8%     -17.7%
  San Diego        $394,490         2.4%       16.6%      30.0%     -11.7%
  San Francisco
   Bay             $536,260         7.8%        5.7%      41.5%     -16.9%
  San Luis Obispo  $357,380        -1.2%       12.5%      20.8%       0.0%
  Santa Barbara
   County          $382,000        -3.8%       12.6%       1.2%     -42.2%
  Santa Barbara
   South Coast     $859,000        16.1%       48.8%      -2.7%     -55.8%
  North Santa
   Barbara County  $284,690        -3.9%       20.3%       4.3%     -25.2%
  Santa Clara      $545,000         1.9%        1.9%      38.4%     -28.9%
  Ventura               n.a          n.a         n.a        n.a        n.a
 

*Based on closed escrow sales of single-family, detached homes only (no condos). Reported month-to-month changes in sales activity may overstate actual changes because of the small size of individual regional samples. Movements in sales prices should not be interpreted as measuring changes in the cost of a standard home. Prices are influenced by changes in cost and changes in the characteristics and size of homes actually sold.
sf = single-family, detached home

Median Prices By Region - Current Month vs. Year Ago

                                 Mar-03           Feb-03         Mar-02
  Statewide
  Calif. (sf)                    $352,780        $327,123 r    $305,838
  Calif. (condo)                 $265,440        $263,120 r    $235,470

  Region
  Central Valley                 $208,430        $205,060 r    $173,150
  High Desert                    $142,710        $141,690      $117,920
  Los Angeles                    $309,380        $306,980      $266,830
  Monterey Region                $457,140        $468,750      $433,330
  Monterey County                $405,000        $383,000      $366,617
  Santa Cruz County              $522,500        $525,000      $497,000
  Northern California            $263,500        $246,170 r    $220,970
  Northern Wine Country          $393,690        $389,280      $358,210
  Orange County                  $449,100        $449,540      $379,760
  Palm Springs/Lower Desert      $271,350        $245,550      $219,230
  Riverside/San Bernardino       $197,690        $195,980      $170,670
  Sacramento                     $234,250        $229,280 r    $187,200
  San Diego                      $394,490        $385,170      $338,410
  San Francisco Bay              $536,260        $497,410      $507,530
  San Luis Obispo                $357,380        $361,610      $317,650
  Santa Barbara County           $382,000        $397,140      $339,130
  Santa Barbara South Coast      $859,000        $740,000      $577,430
  North Santa Barbara County     $284,690        $296,150      $236,610
  Santa Clara                    $545,000        $535,000      $535,000
  Ventura                             n.a        $397,260      $336,340


   r - revised
 

Source: California Association of REALTORS